ASEAN risks losing clout in East Asia

Top Asian leaders will gather in Thailand from Oct. 23-25 to attend the 15th ASEAN Summit to chart a new course amid tough challenges in the fast-changing regional political landscape.

The summit will see the gathering of 16 nations - six of them are members of the G20 - under the umbrella of ASEAN+1, ASEAN+3 and the East Asian Summit (EAS). Altogether, the grouping has a combined GDP of US$6.8 trillion with a population of more than 2 billion people.

Wielding such immense clout, the summit promises to be of great importance, but critics warn things could turn out otherwise as ASEAN leaders face challenges to maintain their leverage over the success of the EAS.

The EAS is among the major successes of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Under the leadership of ASEAN, historical rivals China, Japan and South Korea agreed to sit together under the umbrella of ASEAN+3. India, Australia, and New Zealand later joined the ASEAN+3 to form the EAS.

However, the EAS could lose its significance, with Japan already floating its initiative of a similar grouping it calls the East Asian Community.

"It is clear that Japan would like to become the chief of its own grouping instead of counting on ASEAN countries for a meeting to see its biggest regional competitor China," said Bantarto Bandoro, chairman of the Indonesian Institute of Strategic Studies.

Although details of the new community remain sketchy since the idea was first brought up at the UN General Assembly in New York last month, the concept is said to be inspired by the example of the European Union, which would allow better economic integration.

"The power shift to Asia *from the West* should bring the chance for Japan to become a leader in this region," Bantarto said.

"The new community is floated to check with China, to prevent it from competing with China in terms of becoming Asian leaders."

Critics say East Asian giants China, Japan and South Korea may sooner or later leave the EAS as they can already convene among themselves without the leadership of ASEAN, which is also reeling from domestic problems.

The first trilateral summit of the East Asian giants was held last December in Japan, with the second having just ended earlier this month in Beijing.

At the second trilateral summit, the three countries pledged their commitment to working closely toward regional economic integration, aiming eventually for a bloc similar to the European Union.

During a recent visit by the Japanese foreign minister, then Indonesian foreign minister Hassan Wirajuda said ASEAN+3 would remain an important pillar for Asian integration and its presence should not be threatened by the new concept floated by the Japanese government.

"Indonesia and Japan always share similar views about the future of this region and we have always wanted to cooperate closely, and so we agree to consult with each other about how cooperation and integration can work better in the future."

The Japanese government has said it would involve Indonesia in the establishment of the East Asian Community, considering that Indonesia has played an important role in the 42-year-old ASEAN.

"Indonesia is an important partner for Japan in efforts to achieve integration in East Asia," said Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada.

"Indonesia plays an important role in ASEAN. Japan would like to have a dialogue with Indonesia about the establishment of the East Asian Community."

As the biggest ASEAN member state, Indonesia has reaped criticism for its inability to take the lead on the many problems plaguing the organization, from Myanmar's poor human rights record, to members' border disputes and the political woes in Thailand and Malaysia.

Thailand, the current ASEAN chair, is sliding into further domestic political turmoil, sending bad signals to the grouping's dialogue partners about its capability to lead. The EAS meeting in the resort town of Phuket in Thailand earlier this year was forced to be canceled after antigovernment protesters stormed into hotels and meeting avenues. State leaders scheduled to attend the EAS had to be evacuated.

"The presence of the East Asian Community would be problematic for us as once it is established, it would diminish the role of ASEAN," said Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a senior researcher with the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI).

"Japan, under the new government, might want to exercise its regional leadership role because it has been lagging behind China and South Korea, who have also floated their ideas of another regional grouping."

"We still have to learn more about the new concept, as there has been no consensus about it yet... But to my opinion, it's better to strengthen the existing groupings than forming a new one."



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